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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 28 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
47%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
362 picks · 327 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 837 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
308 picks · 160 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
291 picks · 329 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 783 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
274 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
269 picks · 687 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:35
Yakult Brothers 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 54:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
46% · 198 games46% · 126 games
Shadow FiendPalos
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
Lycanzeal
55% · 134 games43% · 310 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
53% · 317 games46% · 193 games
DawnbreakerTino-
Dawnbreaker
Slark
SlarkBoBoKa
56% · 54 games47% · 134 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
59% · 164 games51% · 104 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:58
Yakult Brothers 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Execration in 54:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageflyfly
53% · 16 games57% · 44 games
UrsaPalos
Ursa
Lycan
Lycanzeal
50% · 73 games48% · 64 games
Shadow FiendBob
Shadow Fiend
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerEmo
54% · 7 games51% · 31 game
DazzleTino-
Dazzle
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
45% · 211 games51% · 89 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPoloson
73% · 7 games48% · 86 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct35:20
Yakult Brothers 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunaflyfly
42% · 88 games52% · 208 games
Void SpiritPalos
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batriderzeal
50% · 243 games53% · 197 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckEmo
47% · 403 games58% · 225 games
EarthshakerTino-
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
50% · 267 games51% · 347 games
MuertaShanks
Muerta
Alchemist
AlchemistBoBoKa
53% · 80 games42% · 104 games
Silencercml
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 62%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3