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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 25 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
32%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
41%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 44 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
662 picks · 821 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 591 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 409 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
468 picks · 314 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1073 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 694 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 622 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
382 picks · 992 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total87% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
Yakult Brothers 27%MOUZ 73%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
53% · 281 game50% · 380 games
BeastmasterCrystallis
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoon
52% · 388 games47% · 625 games
PuckMidOne
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerYang
49% · 343 games56% · 165 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
45% · 487 games52% · 128 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
46% · 207 games50% · 408 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed38:22
Yakult Brothers 27%MOUZ 73%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaGhost
47% · 191 game51% · 220 games
MarciCrystallis
Marci
Monkey King
Monkey KingMoon
54% · 196 games46% · 228 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerYang
48% · 387 games50% · 461 game
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
47% · 584 games46% · 464 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant Protector天命
62% · 88 games54% · 73 games
Faceless Voidyamich
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 87%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2