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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 18 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 22 games
41%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 17 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
543 picks · 750 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 577 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
498 picks · 620 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
493 picks · 585 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
486 picks · 411 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
454 picks · 987 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
451 picks · 807 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 902 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:20
Yakult Brothers 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
59% · 90 games44% · 53 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Doom
Doomzeal
52% · 257 games52% · 88 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
52% · 213 games49% · 317 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Zeus
Zeus天命
40% · 133 games48% · 221 game
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Riki
RikiBoBoKa
51% · 30 games55% · 44 games
Bounty HunterOmaR
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction missed45:36
Yakult Brothers 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 58:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
42% · 45 games53% · 114 games
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Earth Spirit
Puck
PuckEmo
55% · 188 games50% · 81 game
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzeal
57% · 147 games40% · 49 games
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
Vengeful Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
59% · 46 games41% · 94 games
ZeusGH
Zeus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden天命
46% · 232 games50% · 320 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 59%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2