?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 20 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
天命 · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
天命 · 10 games
70%

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
46%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 290 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
348 picks · 144 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
341 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 463 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 452 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
275 picks · 257 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
267 picks · 196 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:24
Yakult Brothers 60%PlayTime 40%
The model gave 60% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerlou
53% · 221 game54% · 85 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Puck
PuckEmo
52% · 325 games46% · 307 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawBEYOND
58% · 169 games46% · 191 game
ViperFCR
Viper
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet天命
45% · 161 game49% · 230 games
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Lion
LionKaka
55% · 96 games47% · 159 games
TechiesElmisho
Techies
Game 2prediction correct39:25
Yakult Brothers 61%PlayTime 39%
The model gave 61% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlou
55% · 57 games42% · 59 games
Troll Warlord4nalog
Troll Warlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawBEYOND
60% · 115 games45% · 309 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
58% · 271 game46% · 132 games
BristlebackFCR
Bristleback
Dark Willow
Dark WillowKaka
46% · 119 games42% · 172 games
TechiesElmisho
Techies
Bane
Bane天命
58% · 149 games45% · 39 games
Crystal MaidenKJ
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 67%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2