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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Roar Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 36 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 13 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RedPanda · 10 games
30%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
755 picks · 354 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 627 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
545 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
452 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
449 picks · 506 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 726 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
401 picks · 259 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
Yakult Brothers 62%Roar Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritflyfly
49% · 444 games46% · 266 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Sniper
SniperEmo
46% · 107 games49% · 277 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Slardar
Slardarzeal
53% · 212 games50% · 313 games
BeastmasterJT-
Beastmaster
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
52% · 445 games45% · 184 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Bane
BaneBoBoKa
58% · 205 games50% · 373 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed10:40
Yakult Brothers 62%Roar Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritflyfly
53% · 406 games46% · 292 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerEmo
49% · 169 games55% · 339 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Slardar
Slardarzeal
53% · 159 games42% · 137 games
AxeJT-
Axe
Jakiro
Jakiro天命
50% · 330 games49% · 286 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Bane
BaneBoBoKa
56% · 195 games46% · 205 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct30:9
Yakult Brothers 62%Roar Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
50% · 101 game50% · 202 games
AbaddonUlu
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
45% · 312 games51% · 132 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
Slardarzeal
53% · 177 games43% · 87 games
AxeJT-
Axe
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
46% · 63 games51% · 293 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Snapfire
Snapfire天命
55% · 333 games54% · 272 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 72%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3