ESL Challenger China · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Roar Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
Bane
BoBoKa · 18 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 17 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 12 games
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
570 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 406 bans
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 900 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 623 bans
Mars
369 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
363 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
Yakult Brothers 65%Roar Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMoon
PuckButterflyEffect
MarsYang
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Gyrocopterflyfly
Underlord生死
WindrangerBoBoKa
TinyCatYou
Undying天命
JakiroLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 80%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1