MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SHSable Hatloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 12 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 10 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
Tusksignature
Poloson · 10 games
Lunasignature
flyfly · 9 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 9 games
Sable Hat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 534 bans
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
Luna
334 picks · 445 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 516 bans
Batrider
307 picks · 333 bans
Enchantress
307 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 81%Sable Hat 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Game 2prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 81%Sable Hat 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 81%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2