BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TATeam Aureuswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
Force · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
600 picks · 298 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 525 bans
Puck
391 picks · 1079 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 185 bans
Mars
348 picks · 587 bans
Pugna
346 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 72%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Yakult Brothers 50%Team Aureus 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageflyfly
Templar AssassinNatsumi
PuckEmo
Dragon KnightYopaj
Axezeal
AbaddonForce
TimbersawBoBoKa
HoodwinkTims
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
ChenSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 55%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1