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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 19 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
53%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
433 picks · 373 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 788 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 329 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 830 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
277 picks · 545 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 364 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 623 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total87% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:7
Yakult Brothers 27%Team Liquid 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
47% · 262 games55% · 270 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBEYOND
54% · 173 games48% · 128 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
46% · 275 games46% · 154 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBoBoKa
50% · 83 games52% · 243 games
PuckBoxi
Puck
Silencer
SilencerOli
49% · 116 games53% · 114 games
Naga SireniNSaNiA
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct8:27
Yakult Brothers 27%Team Liquid 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonflyfly
43% · 118 games51% · 199 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsBEYOND
48% · 125 games50% · 259 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
54% · 204 games47% · 95 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
56% · 194 games52% · 107 games
LeshracBoxi
Leshrac
Silencer
SilencerOli
48% · 116 games53% · 97 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct17:34
Yakult Brothers 26%Team Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
48% · 227 games50% · 295 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawEmo
48% · 119 games52% · 179 games
EarthshakerNisha
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixBEYOND
53% · 186 games47% · 123 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Naga Siren
Naga SirenOli
59% · 161 game43% · 109 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoBoKa
46% · 240 games54% · 227 games
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 87%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3