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ACL X ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 25 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 29 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 27 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 15 games
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 13 games
46%
Sand King
Sand King
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 669 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
417 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
327 picks · 624 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 523 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 592 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total83% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:19
Yakult Brothers 30%Team Tidebound 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
45% · 97 games57% · 211 games
BristlebackNothingToSay
Bristleback
Invoker
InvokerEmo
42% · 179 games56% · 19 games
Clinkzshiro
Clinkz
Mars
Marszeal
50% · 169 games52% · 103 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Ringmaster
RingmasterOli
44% · 120 games51% · 137 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
55% · 127 games51% · 222 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed36:23
Yakult Brothers 30%Team Tidebound 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
51% · 119 games51% · 156 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerEmo
48% · 161 game61% · 174 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Mars
Marszeal
41% · 140 games49% · 120 games
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPyw
46% · 133 games61% · 38 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
47% · 135 games48% · 200 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 83%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2