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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Yandexloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 28 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 24 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 21 game
38%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 32 games
66%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 21 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 969 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 434 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 474 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 510 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 555 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total70% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Yakult Brothers 38%Team Yandex 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
47% · 578 games52% · 199 games
Shadow FiendWatson
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracMoon
51% · 272 games49% · 287 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Razor
RazorYang
54% · 149 games54% · 301 game
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
45% · 248 games50% · 332 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoBoKa
52% · 193 games46% · 321 game
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed38:19
Yakult Brothers 38%Team Yandex 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendflyfly
56% · 268 games51% · 49 games
KezWatson
Kez
Tidehunter
TidehunterYang
49% · 242 games52% · 242 games
BatriderNoticed
Batrider
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoon
47% · 349 games48% · 151 game
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
54% · 200 games48% · 325 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
42% · 90 games50% · 382 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2