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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tearlamentsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 12 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 11 games
45%

Tearlaments

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
7e · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 723 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
270 picks · 250 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 669 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
252 picks · 267 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 666 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 562 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Tearlaments
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
Yakult Brothers 51%Tearlaments 49%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerflyfly
56% · 86 games45% · 70 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
50% · 95 games44% · 155 games
Sand KingEcho
Sand King
Batrider
Batriderzeal
55% · 161 game49% · 161 game
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBoBoKa
52% · 146 games47% · 129 games
Snapfire7e
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
46% · 120 games55% · 93 games
Elder Titanzzq
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Yakult Brothers 50%Tearlaments 50%
The model gave 50% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinflyfly
51% · 133 games41% · 31 game
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Mars
Marszeal
43% · 130 games55% · 112 games
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
Centaur Warrunner
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEmo
50% · 125 games53% · 220 games
Storm SpiritEcho
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorBoBoKa
49% · 107 games47% · 131 game
Snapfire7e
Snapfire
Bane
BanePoloson
55% · 74 games52% · 75 games
Elder Titanzzq
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct22:13
Yakult Brothers 51%Tearlaments 49%
The model gave 51% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
49% · 65 games48% · 85 games
Ursapoyoyo
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEmo
48% · 141 game49% · 233 games
BeastmasterEcho
Beastmaster
Mars
Marszeal
50% · 147 games55% · 64 games
Night StalkerSrf
Night Stalker
Bane
BaneBoBoKa
59% · 92 games48% · 151 game
Pugnazzq
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockPoloson
50% · 217 games47% · 129 games
Ringmaster7e
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 57%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3