DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ZZenithloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Lion
Kaka · 21 game
Hoodwink
Kaka · 18 games
Storm Spirit
Emo · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Emo · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
lou · 12 games
Miranasignature
天命 · 10 games
Winter Wyvern
天命 · 10 games
Zenith
Windranger
CatYou · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Xiangyu · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Ulu · 1 game
Luna
Ulu · 1 game
Mirana
LOyd · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Sand King
MamangDaya · 1 game
Techies
LOyd · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 325 bans
Dark Willow
435 picks · 231 bans
Mirana
397 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
346 picks · 315 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 499 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 285 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 503 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 130 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Zenith
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yakult Brothers 87%Zenith 13%
The model gave 87% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Zenith.
Game 2prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 87%Zenith 13%
The model gave 87% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Game 3prediction correct39:21
Yakult Brothers 71%Zenith 29%
The model gave 71% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezlou
NecrophosXiangyu
Dark SeerBEYOND
WindrangerUlu
Ember SpiritEmo
PangolierMamangDaya
Winter Wyvern天命
BaneLOyd
LionKaka
Nyx AssassinCatYou
Game 8prediction missed17:38
Yakult Brothers 72%Zenith 28%
The model gave 72% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Zenith in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidlou
Anti-MageUlu
EarthshakerEmo
DawnbreakerXiangyu
BrewmasterBEYOND
PangolierMamangDaya
WindrangerKaka
TechiesLOyd
Lich天命
Dark WillowCatYou
Game 9prediction correct41:30
Yakult Brothers 71%Zenith 29%
The model gave 71% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenlou
Nature's ProphetMamangDaya
Outworld DestroyerEmo
MarciXiangyu
PangolierBEYOND
Ember SpiritUlu
Jakiro天命
RubickCatYou
LionKaka
TechiesLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 87%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5