Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
Legion Commander
woMy · 2 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Doomoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Iooften banned
db- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
37 picks · 73 bans
Puck
34 picks · 81 bans
Earth Spirit
30 picks · 22 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 42 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Monkey King
24 picks · 43 bans
Ember Spirit
23 picks · 29 bans
Phoenix
23 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:22
Yangon Galacticos 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYoung PH
Phantom Lancerdb-
little data
PugnawoMy
little data
TidehunterMamangDaya
little data
Earth SpiritLym-
Game 2prediction missed47:17
Yangon Galacticos 49%Army Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYoung PH
Terrorbladedb-
little data
KunkkaMamangDaya
little data
TimbersawwoMy
little data
TinyLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 52%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2