Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 915 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 549 bans
Mars
323 picks · 591 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 543 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect