DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Hoodwink
Shanks · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
397 picks · 505 bans
Muerta
388 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 404 bans
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 738 bans
Gyrocopter
305 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yangon Galacticos 39%Execration 61%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1