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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 538 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
405 picks · 336 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 389 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 585 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
347 picks · 436 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
338 picks · 801 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
328 picks · 336 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:40
Yangon Galacticos 39%Execration 61%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 25:17.
Game 2prediction correct
Yangon Galacticos 39%Execration 61%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2