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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 6 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%

Ivory

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 7 games
14%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Rupido · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
499 picks · 258 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 467 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 972 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 372 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
297 picks · 489 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 146 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 501 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
290 picks · 614 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% Ivory
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
Yangon Galacticos 46%Ivory 54%
The model gave 54% on Ivory — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKsh
54% · 150 games47% · 70 games
Dragon KnightKen
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracYoung PH
50% · 126 games43% · 39 games
Troll WarlordRupido
Troll Warlord
52% · 102 games
TuskDric~
Tusk
51% · 65 games
JakiroTeehee
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct37:38
Yangon Galacticos 44%Ivory 56%
The model gave 56% on Ivory — the game was taken by Ivory in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKsh
46% · 251 game53% · 160 games
GyrocopterRupido
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckYoung PH
50% · 231 game53% · 79 games
LeshracKen
Leshrac
51% · 173 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
51% · 70 games
BaneTeehee
Bane
Game 3prediction missed35:14
Yangon Galacticos 46%Ivory 54%
The model gave 54% on Ivory — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKsh
51% · 162 games46% · 9 games
Wraith KingRupido
Wraith King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerYoung PH
48% · 128 games53% · 147 games
PuckKen
Puck
44% · 92 games
HoodwinkDric~
Hoodwink
56% · 42 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteIvory · 61%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3