PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KINGSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
KINGS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
409 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 382 bans
Lion
353 picks · 179 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 583 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 811 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% KINGS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Yangon Galacticos 82%KINGS 18%
The model gave 82% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 28:24.
Game 2prediction missed36:12
Yangon Galacticos 82%KINGS 18%
The model gave 82% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by KINGS in 30:35.
Game 3prediction correct55:27
Yangon Galacticos 82%KINGS 18%
The model gave 82% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 56:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 82%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3