Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Omega Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Omega Esports
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 3 games
Grimstroke
cml · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Brewmaster
Bok · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 94 bans
Puck
43 picks · 107 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
38 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 38 bans
Monkey King
30 picks · 62 bans
Mirana
29 picks · 33 bans
Undying
28 picks · 55 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:44
Yangon Galacticos 41%Omega Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkYoung PH
Troll WarlordTino-
little data
RikiMac
71% · 3 games
BatriderBoomy
little data
PangolierBok
little data
Lioncml
Game 2prediction correct51:44
Yangon Galacticos 54%Omega Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYoung PH
Elder TitanTino-
little data
Monkey KingMac
little data
MagnusBok
little data
TechiesBoomy
little data
Brewmastercml
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2