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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Young PH · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ksh · 6 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer
Young PH · 2 games
100%

SPAWN Team

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
TraVins · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
368 picks · 344 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
324 picks · 299 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
272 picks · 516 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
254 picks · 465 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 566 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
236 picks · 597 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 344 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
221 picks · 121 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:42
Yangon Galacticos 59%SPAWN Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaKsh
48% · 145 games55% · 77 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierYoung PH
47% · 201 game49% · 40 games
Spirit BreakerRed
Spirit Breaker
50% · 64 games
Primal BeastMamangDaya
Primal Beast
56% · 97 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
52% · 68 games
Treant ProtectorTraVins
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct47:14
Yangon Galacticos 58%SPAWN Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKsh
50% · 71 game55% · 75 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYoung PH
45% · 178 games56% · 21 game
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
53% · 20 games
Night StalkerRed
Night Stalker
50% · 84 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
51% · 49 games
Treant ProtectorTraVins
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed32:41
Yangon Galacticos 55%SPAWN Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaKsh
48% · 104 games59% · 16 games
Naga SirenJikroy
Naga Siren
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderYoung PH
48% · 45 games60% · 32 games
ViperRed
Viper
54% · 35 games
DawnbreakerMamangDaya
Dawnbreaker
47% · 43 games
Nyx Assassindalul
Nyx Assassin
45% · 23 games
SilencerTraVins
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 64%
Series resultSPAWN Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3