DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
Team Aureus
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
Snapfire
Tims · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Force · 1 game
Bristleback
Force · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 749 bans
Disruptor
291 picks · 264 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
262 picks · 283 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
254 picks · 243 bans
Marci
253 picks · 709 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:39
Yangon Galacticos 32%Team Aureus 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 1:05:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckYoung PH
BristlebackForce
Anti-MageKsh
AbaddonNatsumi
55% · 107 games
Void SpiritYopaj
41% · 44 games
SnapfireTims
52% · 46 games
BaneSkem
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Yangon Galacticos 32%Team Aureus 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKsh
GyrocopterNatsumi
EarthshakerYoung PH
Sand KingYopaj
51% · 105 games
BristlebackForce
44% · 53 games
SilencerSkem
41% · 65 games
SnapfireTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 83%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2