DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Team Kukuys
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
Disruptor
Kuku · 6 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Marssignature
JG · 6 games
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
Bane
Kuku · 4 games
Leshrac
Armel · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 688 bans
Tusk
508 picks · 339 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
422 picks · 146 bans
Hoodwink
403 picks · 192 bans
Mars
376 picks · 517 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:31
Yangon Galacticos 33%Team Kukuys 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKsh
GyrocopterGabbi
TinyYoung PH
PuckArmel
46% · 112 games
MarsJG
61% · 63 games
Keeper of the LightDJ
50% · 4 games
Treant ProtectorKuku
Game 2prediction correct23:26
Yangon Galacticos 34%Team Kukuys 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKsh
Shadow FiendGabbi
Storm SpiritYoung PH
PuckArmel
47% · 94 games
AxeJG
50% · 125 games
Shadow DemonDJ
48% · 94 games
ClockwerkKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 76%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2