DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nimisterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Earth Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Team Nimister
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 697 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
417 picks · 307 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
374 picks · 851 bans
Magnus
372 picks · 983 bans
Phantom Assassin
369 picks · 619 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nimister
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Yangon Galacticos 49%Team Nimister 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nimister — the game was taken by Team Nimister in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKsh
SlarkAbat
SniperYoung PH
PuckYowe
47% · 134 games
Dragon KnightTino-
Game 2prediction missed45:50
Yangon Galacticos 51%Team Nimister 49%
The model gave 51% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Team Nimister in 1:04:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckYoung PH
Phantom AssassinAbat
SlarkKsh
EarthshakerTino-
51% · 61 game
Ember SpiritYowe
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 53%
Series resultTeam Nimister 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2