DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangzhiganluwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangzhiganlu
No games played over 6 months.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Shadow Demon
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 383 bans
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 338 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 202 bans
Muerta
207 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
201 picks · 99 bans
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 497 bans
Pugna
180 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yangzhiganlu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:3
Yangzhiganlu 66%GRIN esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Yangzhiganlu — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 29:23.
Game 2prediction missed5:28
Yangzhiganlu 66%GRIN esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Yangzhiganlu — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 25:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangzhiganlu · 66%
Series resultYangzhiganlu 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2