Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shenzhenloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 386 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 620 bans
Bane
239 picks · 173 bans
Lina
218 picks · 470 bans
Lion
213 picks · 104 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 263 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
Ybb Gaming 43%Shenzhen 57%
The model gave 57% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 44:25.
Game 2prediction correct20:11
Ybb Gaming 43%Shenzhen 57%
The model gave 57% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 34:48.
Game 3prediction missed24:2
Ybb Gaming 43%Shenzhen 57%
The model gave 57% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 28:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 57%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3