Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 17 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 8 games
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 8 games
Muerta
rue · 8 games
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 538 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 339 bans
Mars
328 picks · 504 bans
Techies
317 picks · 252 bans
Batrider
306 picks · 597 bans
Hoodwink
301 picks · 182 bans
Tiny
290 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Yellow Submarine 49%1w Team 51%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 48:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
AlchemistMunkushi~
Kunkkaerase
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
MarsCloud
Enchantressasdekor_r
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Lionrue
Ioswedenstrong
Game 2prediction correct29:38
Yellow Submarine 49%1w Team 51%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 59:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSatanic
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Doomemptiness
LifestealerMunkushi~
Keeper of the Lighterase
MarsCloud
Enchantressasdekor_r
Ioswedenstrong
Tinyrue
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Game 3prediction missed29:12
Yellow Submarine 49%1w Team 51%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
SvenMunkushi~
Puckerase
MagnusCloud
Kunkkaemptiness
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Rubickrue
Techiesswedenstrong
Batriderasdekor_r
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 50%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3