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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
60%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 25 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 17 games
41%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 33 games
67%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 676 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
426 picks · 197 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 556 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 419 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
353 picks · 599 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 858 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 642 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:28
Yellow Submarine 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
49% · 169 games47% · 329 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
48% · 135 games47% · 207 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
54% · 234 games52% · 105 games
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 204 games55% · 210 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Rubick
Rubickrue
48% · 313 games52% · 204 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct25:32
Yellow Submarine 48%1w Team 52%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 57:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
50% · 106 games43% · 59 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
55% · 155 games44% · 163 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
60% · 168 games49% · 334 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
56% · 219 games50% · 203 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Rubick
Rubickrue
45% · 302 games47% · 191 game
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 56%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2