Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 18 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 9 games
Lion
rue · 8 games
9Pandas
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 11 games
Undying
Solo · 10 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Solo · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
Grimstroke
Antares · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 8 games
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 552 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
Mars
336 picks · 507 bans
Techies
323 picks · 254 bans
Batrider
312 picks · 612 bans
Hoodwink
308 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
293 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:18
Yellow Submarine 47%9Pandas 53%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
LifestealerDarkLord^
Templar Assassinerase
Puckkiyotaka
Marsemptiness
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Hoodwinkrue
TerrorbladeAntares
Enchantressasdekor_r
GyrocopterSolo
Game 2prediction correct9:28
Yellow Submarine 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Keeper of the Lighterase
Arc Wardenkiyotaka
Marsemptiness
Dragon KnightAlberkaaa
Rubickrue
PugnaSolo
Miranaasdekor_r
Skywrath MageAntares
Game 3prediction missed38:18
Yellow Submarine 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawerase
Arc Wardenkiyotaka
Faceless VoidSatanic
BloodseekerDarkLord^
Magnusemptiness
MarsAlberkaaa
Pugnaasdekor_r
TechiesAntares
Rubickrue
Crystal MaidenSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3