PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 19 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Luna
Satanic · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Rubick
rue · 10 games
9Pandas
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 12 games
Gyrocopter
DarkLord^ · 10 games
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 9 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 9 games
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 621 bans
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Mars
370 picks · 584 bans
Techies
369 picks · 297 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 744 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 342 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:34
Yellow Submarine 37%9Pandas 63%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:04:26.
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Yellow Submarine 37%9Pandas 63%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:23.
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Yellow Submarine 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 21046:33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkaemptiness
Dazzlekiyotaka
Faceless VoidSatanic
MarsAlberkaaa
Pangoliererase
LifestealerDarkLord^
Hoodwinkrue
RubickAntares
Pugnaasdekor_r
Crystal MaidenSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3