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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 33 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 28 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
53%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 14 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 8 games
88%
Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 592 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 383 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 137 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 450 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 575 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 383 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 156 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Yellow Submarine 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
59% · 112 games38% · 116 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
52% · 43 games54% · 101 game
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
53% · 129 games55% · 62 games
Pudgekiyotaka
Pudge
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
49% · 148 games54% · 152 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
48% · 114 games40% · 115 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 2prediction missed16:23
Yellow Submarine 52%9Pandas 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 351 game44% · 29 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
Lycankasane
50% · 42 games52% · 156 games
LifestealerDarkLord^
Lifestealer
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
52% · 103 games53% · 275 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
Rubickrue
45% · 283 games39% · 192 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
56% · 80 games50% · 207 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct36:25
Yellow Submarine 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSatanic
51% · 67 games56% · 78 games
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
Monkey King
Tiny
Tinyerase
54% · 221 game48% · 198 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark Seerkasane
52% · 120 games45% · 71 game
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Underlord
Rubick
Rubickrue
45% · 231 game48% · 211 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorasdekor_r
50% · 24 games52% · 105 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3