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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techies
rue · 26 games
46%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 19 games
37%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
44%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
43%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 13 games
62%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 204 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 577 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 748 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 156 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 552 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 688 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 552 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 294 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:23
Yellow Submarine 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
53% · 195 games51% · 170 games
Brewmasteregxrdemxn
Brewmaster
Puck
Puckerase
54% · 189 games50% · 70 games
Wraith Kingrincyq
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
52% · 231 game50% · 54 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Techies
Techiesrue
49% · 283 games50% · 527 games
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
48% · 219 games44% · 296 games
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed20:28
Yellow Submarine 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSatanic
50% · 111 games58% · 111 games
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
48% · 270 games54% · 198 games
Dragon KnightDendi
Dragon Knight
Zeus
Zeuserase
39% · 69 games54% · 150 games
Lifestealerrincyq
Lifestealer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
52% · 100 games50% · 113 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
45% · 203 games51% · 181 game
GyrocopterMary_y
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed9:24
Yellow Submarine 62%B8 Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
47% · 113 games54% · 50 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Zeus
Zeuserase
40% · 57 games57% · 175 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
Pangolieremptiness
52% · 162 games47% · 37 games
Night Stalkeregxrdemxn
Night Stalker
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
49% · 211 games54% · 237 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
44% · 147 games50% · 191 game
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3