CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Tiny
bottega · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
Abaddonoften banned
ififall · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 3 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 3 games
Pudge
not me · 3 games
Pugna
VaniLLl · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
zvёzd · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ififall · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 537 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
354 picks · 411 bans
Puck
330 picks · 878 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 924 bans
Pangolier
316 picks · 479 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Yellow Submarine 56%Ban9PivoSamogon 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
Broodmotherzvёzd
Void SpiritMirele
Timbersawififall
BrewmasterInfernal
Puckряф^^
BaneXakoda
PugnaVaniLLl
Dark Willowmrls
Pudgenot me
Game 2prediction missed42:30
Yellow Submarine 59%Ban9PivoSamogon 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 55:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMirele
Medusazvёzd
Dragon Knightbottega
Puckряф^^
Nature's Prophetmrls
Doomififall
SlardarInfernal
Elder TitanVaniLLl
PugnaXakoda
Disruptornot me
Game 3prediction correct36:13
Yellow Submarine 55%Ban9PivoSamogon 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
Medusazvёzd
LeshracMirele
Lycanififall
TidehunterInfernal
Batriderряф^^
BaneXakoda
Pugnanot me
Shadow Demonmrls
SilencerVaniLLl
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3