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UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BlasterbIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 32 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrider
not me · 17 games
47%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 15 games
53%

BlasterbI

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Panto · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 2 games
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 2 games
0%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Panto · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
538 picks · 319 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
438 picks · 200 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 174 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 510 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
335 picks · 308 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 313 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 514 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Yellow Submarine 52%BlasterbI 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
54% · 65 games50% · 92 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
57% · 249 games49% · 144 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritRain
56% · 129 games36% · 29 games
Outworld DestroyerSquad1x
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
Techiesaik
49% · 115 games50% · 252 games
Dark WillowPanto
Dark Willow
Rubick
Rubickprblms
44% · 206 games49% · 247 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Yellow Submarine 52%BlasterbI 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezrincyq
57% · 198 games44% · 91 game
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
48% · 13 games48% · 135 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRain
52% · 283 games46% · 173 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Techies
Techiesprblms
51% · 171 game49% · 193 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Lich
Lichaik
53% · 102 games47% · 175 games
Dark WillowPanto
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed1:0
Yellow Submarine 50%BlasterbI 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
46% · 247 games56% · 121 game
NecrophosCorrupted
Necrophos
Timbersaw
Timbersawmangekyou
50% · 185 games54% · 149 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritRain
45% · 165 games56% · 387 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Techies
Techiesprblms
50% · 152 games42% · 50 games
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
47% · 224 games50% · 266 games
Dark WillowPanto
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 53%
Series resultBlasterbI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3