PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 20 games
Snapfire
mrls · 20 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Tiny
bottega · 18 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Disruptor
flacko · 5 games
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Tusk
Fernans · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
437 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
422 picks · 214 bans
Puck
347 picks · 917 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 367 bans
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 224 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:24
Yellow Submarine 61%Inner Circle 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
Svenyowaai
Dragon Knightbottega
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Dawnbreakerlaise
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Hoodwinksayuw
Enchantressflacko
WarlockXakoda
Bounty HunterFernans
Game 2prediction missed21:27
Yellow Submarine 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Void SpiritMirele
LycanNorma
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Marciyowaai
Shadow Demonsayuw
PugnaFernans
SnapfireXakoda
Ioflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 69%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2