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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 25 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Techies
Techies
rue · 18 games
39%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 17 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Satanic · 13 games
62%

JustBetter

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 4 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 700 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 874 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 593 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
422 picks · 184 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
413 picks · 658 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 700 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
401 picks · 313 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Yellow Submarine 64%JustBetter 36%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
49% · 236 games55% · 218 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
50% · 357 games51% · 258 games
KunkkaSkyLark
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
50% · 329 games56% · 281 game
PuckThuG
Puck
Techies
Techiesrue
52% · 307 games47% · 340 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
45% · 162 games45% · 294 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed10:26
Yellow Submarine 64%JustBetter 36%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by JustBetter in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
49% · 223 games52% · 210 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Lina
Linaerase
53% · 93 games52% · 203 games
Dragon KnightThuG
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
46% · 219 games49% · 62 games
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Legion Commander
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
50% · 196 games47% · 251 game
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
Batrider
Batriderasdekor_r
52% · 207 games51% · 212 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Game 3prediction correct21:17
Yellow Submarine 62%JustBetter 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
52% · 116 games48% · 143 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Leshrac
Leshracerase
54% · 100 games54% · 55 games
LycanSkyLark
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark Seeremptiness
50% · 149 games51% · 93 games
Queen of PainThuG
Queen of Pain
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
48% · 339 games51% · 339 games
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskrue
44% · 109 games48% · 183 games
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3