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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 13 games
31%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 10 games
30%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 8 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 6 games
67%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
not me · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 585 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 403 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 397 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 512 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 702 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
325 picks · 609 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 792 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Yellow Submarine 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
51% · 394 games46% · 325 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Abaddon
AbaddonInfernal
48% · 167 games47% · 258 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
56% · 251 game51% · 257 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
48% · 70 games50% · 242 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionmrls
54% · 200 games
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Yellow Submarine 52%Kalmychata 48%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabottega
54% · 134 games53% · 128 games
SvenLowskill
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
47% · 249 games47% · 181 game
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonInfernal
48% · 94 games46% · 90 games
Death Prophetxn丶e
Death Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
54% · 268 games50% · 438 games
TuskGilgir
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerXakoda
52% · 92 games
Game 3prediction correct38:9
Yellow Submarine 54%Kalmychata 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbottega
46% · 77 games53% · 139 games
AbaddonLowskill
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
54% · 217 games51% · 357 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
44% · 53 games43% · 3 games
NecrophosCorrupted
Necrophos
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
53% · 136 games48% · 302 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Tusk
Tuskmrls
50% · 318 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3