CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Tiny
bottega · 15 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 15 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 12 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 11 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 409 bans
Puck
331 picks · 876 bans
Batrider
324 picks · 921 bans
Pangolier
316 picks · 478 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 290 bans
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:28
Yellow Submarine 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
JuggernautWoE
Queen of PainMirele
Shadow FiendEthereal
LycanInfernal
SlardarAnkou
Tinymrls
Bounty Hunterraregods
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction missed15:40
Yellow Submarine 55%Kalmychata 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusabottega
Void SpiritWoE
Shadow FiendMirele
SlardarAnkou
MarsInfernal
InvokerEthereal
Batridermrls
Bounty Hunterraregods
ClockwerkXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 62%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2