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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 30 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 25 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
729 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 262 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
419 picks · 693 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
419 picks · 266 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
407 picks · 429 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 222 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total63% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
Yellow Submarine 63%Kalmychata 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:22.
Game 2prediction correct43:22
Yellow Submarine 63%Kalmychata 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2