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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
64%
Techies
Techies
rue · 22 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 18 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 20 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 12 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 671 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 839 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 590 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 179 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 626 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 683 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Yellow Submarine 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
54% · 137 games48% · 220 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Windranger
Windrangererase
51% · 137 games54% · 227 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
47% · 218 games52% · 40 games
Sniperre1bl
Sniper
Techies
Techiesrue
46% · 231 game46% · 152 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
53% · 192 games50% · 276 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct43:42
Yellow Submarine 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 54:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
50% · 276 games41% · 76 games
Zeusre1bl
Zeus
Razor
Razoremptiness
53% · 147 games46% · 241 game
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Slark
SlarkSatanic
55% · 106 games53% · 191 game
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterasdekor_r
53% · 194 games46% · 185 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Lion
Lionrue
48% · 235 games53% · 265 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct24:7
Yellow Submarine 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 20:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasteremptiness
49% · 109 games52% · 44 games
Meepore1bl
Meepo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
48% · 181 game50% · 122 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
50% · 137 games53% · 188 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrue
49% · 148 games48% · 244 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
49% · 147 games53% · 124 games
EnigmaPanto
Enigma
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3