?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 30 games
57%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 24 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
45%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
44%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 216 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 721 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 593 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 426 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 679 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 166 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 954 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 681 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:34
Yellow Submarine 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:06:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSatanic
57% · 61 game58% · 131 game
Leshracre1bl
Leshrac
Puck
Puckerase
51% · 195 games46% · 91 game
Bloodseekerv1olent-
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
Pangolierkasane
46% · 298 games47% · 275 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
50% · 180 games53% · 143 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
50% · 146 games43% · 240 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed36:13
Yellow Submarine 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
50% · 171 game56% · 209 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
50% · 273 games48% · 123 games
Linare1bl
Lina
Windranger
Windrangererase
46% · 112 games44% · 82 games
AxeBb3px
Axe
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
48% · 150 games56% · 172 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
50% · 176 games51% · 296 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2