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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 30 games
37%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 29 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 27 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 30 games
73%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 29 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 28 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
slimeyao · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 23 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
663 picks · 286 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 599 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
568 picks · 727 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
550 picks · 268 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 326 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 578 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
491 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 677 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total66% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:15
Yellow Submarine 41%HULIGANI 59%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonbottega
52% · 220 games46% · 201 game
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMirele
54% · 69 games57% · 342 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterInfernal
46% · 140 games49% · 104 games
Huskarerase
Huskar
Jakiro
JakiroHtrd
50% · 369 games51% · 145 games
DazzleRESPECT
Dazzle
Tiny
Tinyprblms
42% · 251 game52% · 257 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct15:27
Yellow Submarine 39%HULIGANI 61%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertabottega
50% · 224 games49% · 163 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperMirele
41% · 49 games58% · 301 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterInfernal
47% · 243 games48% · 67 games
Rubickerase
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskprblms
50% · 418 games50% · 433 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorHtrd
49% · 266 games55% · 236 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 66%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2