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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 9 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 7 games
14%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
pJonn · 6 games
67%

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
85%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 437 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
234 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
221 picks · 325 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 432 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
205 picks · 175 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 539 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
197 picks · 268 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
Yellow Submarine 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
43% · 130 games47% · 298 games
PangolierBor@nija
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painfn
57% · 79 games52% · 90 games
LeshracFocus
Leshrac
Underlord
UnderlordpJonn
41% · 58 games55% · 28 games
AbaddonCorrupted
Abaddon
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetaik
46% · 178 games65% · 75 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Lion
Lionrue
42% · 46 games
Game 2prediction correct9:18
Yellow Submarine 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 29:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
49% · 75 games49% · 78 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Puck
Puckfn
44% · 115 games54% · 82 games
Dragon KnightBor@nija
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastpJonn
50% · 199 games55% · 103 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Weaver
Weaverrue
53% · 41 game46% · 186 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Bane
Baneaik
56% · 19 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 57%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2