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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 31 game
55%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Rain · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
Wein · 12 games
67%

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 16 games
88%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
79%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
62%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 11 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
90%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 356 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
355 picks · 643 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 394 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
333 picks · 187 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 452 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 345 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 328 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 231 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 66%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:5
Yellow Submarine 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendShigetsu
52% · 205 games45% · 65 games
LinaWoE
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
55% · 228 games54% · 293 games
TimbersawBb3px
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierRain
49% · 234 games43% · 299 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Lich
LichXakoda
52% · 64 games56% · 124 games
Miranaqueezy
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
46% · 421 game49% · 371 game
ClockwerkHtrd
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Yellow Submarine 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShigetsu
41% · 110 games54% · 112 games
AlchemistWoE
Alchemist
Necrophos
NecrophosBatyuk
49% · 82 games55% · 331 game
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierRain
45% · 336 games50% · 325 games
PuckAinkrad
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
51% · 574 games54% · 250 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Mirana
MiranaXakoda
46% · 82 games54% · 166 games
TechiesHtrd
Techies
Game 3prediction correct7:29
Yellow Submarine 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezShigetsu
47% · 154 games60% · 7 games
BloodseekerWoE
Bloodseeker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
50% · 58 games47% · 277 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Huskar
HuskarRain
55% · 95 games44% · 70 games
SniperAinkrad
Sniper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
55% · 320 games49% · 292 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXakoda
56% · 64 games45% · 45 games
Witch DoctorHtrd
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 65%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3