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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 29 games
62%
Techies
Techies
rue · 24 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 16 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
53%

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallize · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 201 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 572 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 751 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 567 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 158 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 690 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 561 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 1065 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Yellow Submarine 72%Monte 28%
The model gave 72% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
54% · 154 games50% · 197 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Sniper
SniperLarl
51% · 31 game46% · 118 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
49% · 194 games42% · 26 games
ClinkzMoonlight
Clinkz
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
55% · 224 games44% · 247 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
55% · 95 games49% · 110 games
ClockwerkEcNart
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Yellow Submarine 70%Monte 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
47% · 210 games41% · 101 game
Anti-MageCrystallize
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
TimbersawLarl
50% · 148 games54% · 208 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
Kunkkaemptiness
54% · 175 games50% · 166 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Techies
Techiesrue
48% · 151 game53% · 236 games
GyrocopterEcNart
Gyrocopter
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
54% · 177 games48% · 150 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 85%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2