CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 25 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Tusk
mrls · 24 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 22 games
Most Wanted
Tusk
Ponlo · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Rein · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
726 picks · 347 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 634 bans
Hoodwink
506 picks · 258 bans
Puck
424 picks · 1175 bans
Mars
419 picks · 694 bans
Tusk
419 picks · 260 bans
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 424 bans
Jakiro
357 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:10
Yellow Submarine 48%Most Wanted 52%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingbottega
Anti-Mage423
TimbersawInfernal
Puckniche
Ember SpiritMirele
PangolierfortniteMan
SilencerHtrd
Shadow DemonPonlo
Tuskprblms
PugnaRein
Game 2prediction correct26:22
Yellow Submarine 43%Most Wanted 57%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirele
Naga Siren423
Nature's Prophetbottega
BristlebackfortniteMan
MarsInfernal
Void Spiritniche
DisruptorHtrd
ChenRein
Spirit Breakerprblms
Shadow DemonPonlo
Game 3prediction correct28:56
Yellow Submarine 43%Most Wanted 57%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 1:02:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMirele
Nature's Prophet423
Dragon Knightbottega
BristlebackfortniteMan
UnderlordInfernal
Puckniche
JakiroHtrd
ChenRein
Void Spiritprblms
LionPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 53%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3