?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 33 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 25 games
68%
Techies
Techies
rue · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 19 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
58%

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
427 picks · 359 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 455 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 833 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 758 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 526 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 506 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 593 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:27
Yellow Submarine 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSatanic
56% · 159 games55% · 87 games
Shadow FiendSancity
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
45% · 264 games51% · 220 games
WindrangerYuragi
Windranger
Kunkka
Kunkkakasane
52% · 119 games63% · 80 games
Sand KingNefrit
Sand King
Jakiro
Jakirorue
48% · 133 games47% · 204 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Marci
Marciasdekor_r
47% · 83 games43% · 167 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Yellow Submarine 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
50% · 237 games42% · 139 games
LinaYuragi
Lina
Kunkka
Kunkkakasane
56% · 150 games48% · 259 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Windranger
Windrangererase
53% · 147 games37% · 72 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
58% · 184 games50% · 397 games
RubickZayac
Rubick
Batrider
Batriderasdekor_r
55% · 234 games50% · 85 games
UndyingMalady
Undying
Game 3prediction correct16:25
Yellow Submarine 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSatanic
56% · 80 games51% · 84 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
42% · 213 games48% · 134 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
51% · 37 games43% · 44 games
VisageNefrit
Visage
Marci
Marcirue
55% · 55 games54% · 80 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
51% · 76 games50% · 119 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3