Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 29 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
Rubick
rue · 19 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 10 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
387 picks · 696 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 373 bans
Clockwerk
320 picks · 464 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 612 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 248 bans
Rubick
315 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
294 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:21
Yellow Submarine 61%Night Pulse 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 20:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seerkasane
SvenV-Tune
Troll WarlordSatanic
Ember SpiritWorick
Snapfireerase
EnigmaKami
Clockwerkrue
TechiesJANTER
Enchantressasdekor_r
JakiroHduo
Game 2prediction missed29:33
Yellow Submarine 57%Night Pulse 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSatanic
MorphlingV-Tune
Pangoliererase
TinyWorick
Brewmasterkasane
BloodseekerKami
Snapfireasdekor_r
Elder TitanJANTER
Rubickrue
JakiroHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 64%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2