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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 32 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
64%
Techies
Techies
rue · 25 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 23 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 17 games
65%

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
408 picks · 346 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 825 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
355 picks · 737 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 510 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 550 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Yellow Submarine 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
41% · 113 games51% · 278 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
49% · 329 games55% · 225 games
WindrangerWoE
Windranger
Kunkka
Kunkkakasane
50% · 130 games51% · 78 games
PudgeSSS
Pudge
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
52% · 196 games48% · 170 games
Jakironot me
Jakiro
Rubick
Rubickrue
52% · 331 game50% · 348 games
SvenRein
Sven
Game 2prediction correct23:26
Yellow Submarine 60%One Move 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
47% · 160 games52% · 184 games
WindrangerWoE
Windranger
Razor
Razorkasane
44% · 224 games54% · 278 games
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
51% · 203 games55% · 110 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
43% · 183 games55% · 294 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Batrider
Batriderasdekor_r
49% · 299 games50% · 203 games
Shadow DemonRein
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 67%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2