PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 3:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmaster
Htrd · 29 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 24 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 24 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 39 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 39 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 406 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 655 bans
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 890 bans
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 613 bans
Mars
367 picks · 510 bans
Warlock
360 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
Yellow Submarine 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
AbaddonDarkLord^
Lifestealerbottega
Shadow FiendCopy
BatriderInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
WarlockHtrd
TinyEkki
Earth Spiritprblms
Jakiroaik
Game 2prediction missed28:20
Yellow Submarine 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMirele
WeaverDarkLord^
Slarkbottega
TimbersawCopy
BrewmasterInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
RingmasterHtrd
Undyingaik
Grimstrokeprblms
HoodwinkEkki
Game 3prediction missed41:6
Yellow Submarine 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperMirele
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
UnderlordInfernal
PuckCopy
Windrangerbottega
UndyingPalantimos
Hoodwinkprblms
Shadow ShamanEkki
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Jakiroaik
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 55%
Series resultYellow Submarine 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3